“Not Even Wrong” Podcast launch

We try to be right or wrong but we absolutely refuse to be not even wrong

We recently launched the Not Even Wrong Podcast.

The purpose of the podcast is to give people a feel for what’s it’s like to run a hedge fund.

We share current discussions and thoughts about our portfolio and the markets. We also reflect on the performance of our positions.

The name “Not Even Wrong” is inspired by a phrase from German physicist Wolfgang Pauli. He coined the phrase when mocking scientists whose theory didn’t really hold up to his standards.

In order to be right or wrong you have to have a falsifiable theory or something close to that. For example, you have to form a hypothesis based on certain assumptions. Like the earth is spherical. Then you develop technology like satellites to measure the exact shape of the earth. Once you’ve done that you determine if you’re right or wrong.

In contrast a theory like for example, the earth is flat because god made it so but he tricks us to believe it’s not flat is neither right or wrong. It’s not even wrong.

Wall Street is often not even wrong. This is most accentuated with our largest position Tesla. Analysts often use arguments that are not even wrong. The shorts say things like: Tesla is run by a crazy person who doesn’t understand the car industry. The company has no profit and produces less cars than other car makers but is worth more. That’s why the stock is a short.

A thesis like that is not even wrong.

The longs say things like: Elon Musk is a genius and he has figured out how to make self driving cars. He will therefore be able to sell the Tesla cars at a premium and make more money. That’s why the stock is going up.

Same thing, this thesis is not even wrong.

We strive to be right or wrong, but absolutely refuse to be not even wrong.

When we invested in Twitter our thesis was that Twitter will be a leader in artificial intelligence, in particular in natural language processing. They didn’t. We were wrong. We lost money.

When we bought Tesla we thought that Tesla has an advantage in developing electric cars, software and energy products. We also assumed that people will like to buy their products. We were right.

The cadence of the podcast is not fixed. The goal is to publish episodes whenever we have something interesting to say.